The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service produced their 2026 public report this week. Main takeaways suggest Estonia is safe from a Russian invasion for now, but no one should breathe easy. Peace talks between it and Ukraine are a mere manipulation tool, it noted, and in the meantime Russia is releasing its more heinous individuals into the wild with the intention to fight with war, regardless of their lawlessness.
It also said that the biggest threat to Estonia is through cyberspace and there is also a warning to Estonia to ensure identity verification when accepting job applications or academic admissions.
In his forward, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rosin, said Estonia is relatively safe for now.
“In the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service’s assessment, Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year,” he writes. “We are likely to reach a similar assessment next year because Estonia and Europe have taken steps that compel the Kremlin to calculate very carefully what, if anything, it can risk attempting. Even if no such intention exists today, our task is to ensure that this remains the case tomorrow and in the future. Russia’s military reform will enhance the capabilities of its armed forces in the years ahead. To counter this, Estonia and NATO must continue investing in defence. Russia’s calculations of the balance of power must always work to our advantage.”
The report detailed research findings that North Korean IT specialists are attempting to seek employment directly with European and American companies through false identity where they will “infiltrate the company’s IT systems and download confidential business information,” later using it for blackmail purposes to boost Pyongyang’s income.
“In this context, it is critical for Estonian companies to verify the true identity and background of job applicants from third countries. Additionally, firms must remain vigilant when operating in the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors to ensure that their business partners are not front companies for North Korea,” said the EFIS.
Estonia has been proud of its wider AI adoption as a country, but the report warned officials to consider the serious risks of AI both at state and organisational levels. Those using AI in their organisations need “to think systematically, implement strong risk-management practices, and adopt clear policies and security measures.”
Protecting sensitive information not only belonging to Estonia but exploitation to gain access to sensitive information belonging to its allies and about countries it views as adversaries, is one of the main areas Estonia needs to defend.
Assessments of the state of the Russian forces suggest that the aggressor is playing the long game and the ‘recent uptick in peace-talk rhetoric is merely a tactic to buy time’, trying to get on side with the States.
“For Russia, any potential settlement must harm the interests of Ukraine and the countries supporting it. To this end, Russia continually attempts to use peace talks as a tool for manipulation,” it noted, “once again exploiting Western goodwill to justify new and broader demands.”
Russia is establishing large numbers of unmanned systems units across all services, and branches of its armed forces and training of operatives starts early. The country has an aim of training 1 million specialists by implementing UAV-specific coursework in Russian schools. The aim is to have this in place in 75% of all schools in the country by 2030.
Russia is also doubling down on traditional military supplies. Artillery ammunition in production in the country has increased by more than seventeen-fold since 2021, indicating it is preparing for future conflicts even as its war against Ukraine continues.
As for military personnel, there has been a lot written about how Russia has been facing a shortage of ordinary Russians stepping up to fill rapidly-depleting ranks in Ukraine, and the tactics it is adopting to fill that gap. The Estonian report leans into that, too. It notes that there is evidence of the recruitment of vulnerable groups. For example, it cites stories of students coming from the African countries to study in Russia, only to be led into signing up to military positions and then sent to the frontlines to die. Russia is also sending its worst of society from its prisons to army, the report said.
“Lawlessness, abuse of power, corruption, theft, alcoholism and drug use are widespread in Russia’s armed forces. Frontline soldiers also frequently commit serious crimes against civilians,” the authors write. “Additionally, reports are increasingly emerging of illegal trafficking in weapons taken from the battlefield, which are likely to end up in the hands of criminal networks.”
Unsurprisingly, the report authors conclude that Estonia needs to keep travel restrictions and enhanced background checks in place “even after the end of the full-scale war” for people coming from Russia, who in any case need to apply for visas to come to or through Estonia. “This will also help prevent Russian war criminals from entering Europe,” it added.
Another point that the report makes on Russia is while it had a mistrust of China, and the feeling seems to be mutual, both nations feel they will gain more than they may lose from cooperation.
While the report is sobering reading, the immediate threat to those of us living in Estonia appears to be manageable through securing information systems, ID verification and stringent cybersecurity.
You can read the full report here.
