As we enter 2025, here are some of the themes Resilience Media will explore in our writing and at our events (though we also expect the unexpected).
We will be shining a light on the people addressing these problems, raising the profile of the newcomers stepping up to protect our democracies as well as talking to established leaders. We will focus on the intersection of innovation, technology, investment, policy, and strategy; whilst this is mainly about defence and security, we broaden out into resilience because warfare is no longer restricted to the battlefield.
Along with interviews and profiles, news and comment, we will be convening people in events throughout the year to make sure people involved in this ecosystem get to spend time together, hear each other’s views, and build stronger networks. We will be announcing our events schedule in the coming weeks.
An arms race with Russia
If the war in Ukraine is frozen by Trump forcing a deal on Ukraine, we expect a four year arms race with Russia to prepare for Putin’s next attack on Ukraine, or on another country on the Eastern Flank of Europe. This will be about having the best defence tech, but also how we build it fast and at scale.
Focus on manufacturing
The war in Ukraine has led to a rapid innovation in defence technologies. The urgent need for hardware may slow down if the war is frozen, but we will need to build up our industrial base to be able to mass produce drones and military hardware when needed in the future. We are not ready to produce huge numbers of shells, drones, gun barrels, and more when we next need them so this will become a priority for spending, policy, and innovation.
Beware complacency in the West
If the immediacy of the war in Ukraine subsides, we need to carry on and increase the pace of defence innovation. We will need to ensure our politicians don’t step back from military spending and reforms to focus on other short-term problems, and also that our investors and founders keep focussed on innovating to protect our democracies.
Hybrid Warfare will get worse
Whatever happens in Ukraine, we expect to see an escalation in hybrid warfare against democratic nations. This will require innovation in both tactics and technology to detect, protect, and deter attacks on energy and communication infrastructure, food supplies, and more.
Disinformation will get worse, and we aren’t dealing with it well
We will also see an escalation in disinformation. AI will contribute to this, along with the evolution of X from being a business to becoming the political tool of an oligarch with close ties to autocrats. We will be looking at the obstacles disinformation startups face when trying to work with governments, and how our own regulations and political choices may be making things worse.
A focus on resilience
We believe the concept of resilience will become more mainstream, especially as Russia’s hybrid warfare attacks increase. Our democracies are not resilient; we are dangerously vulnerable to attacks from state and non-state actors. Resilience of healthcare, technology, infrastructure, energy, and information will (hopefully) become more important to policymakers. We want more startups to realise they are part of the solution.
The Rise of the Eastern Flank
We will be looking more at the Eastern Flank of Europe. Poland will have the largest army in Europe; politicians from the region, like Estonia’s Kaja Kalas, are becoming European leaders; Estonia is becoming a defence-tech hub. This region is crucial to NATO and Western democracy and the rest of the West needs to learn from their experience dealing with Soviet occupation and Russian aggression.
Will more money in defence be spent well?
Donald Trump will force an increase in defence spending across NATO and Europe. This is necessary and to be welcomed, but will this money be spent well? We will be looking to see how money is combined with reforms to procurement and approaches to innovation. How will this extra spending be divided between existing defence hardware, pay and pensions, and innovative technologies? We will look to see if extra spending amounts to quality or just quantity.
The role of private capital
The Russian and Chinese governments can fund defence tech they need without the constraints of accountability or investment returns. As the West looks more to private capital to fund defence innovation, there’s a risk this filters in favour of unicorns. We will look at the role of VC in defence, but also how we fund the technologies we need that may not offer VC returns.
The problem with banking
It is essential that defence startups and businesses can easily open bank accounts and source lending for defence technologies. We will be talking to people trying to address this.
